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Pending Home Sales Stabilize
Pending home sales have leveled from a market swing driven by response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1.
In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says it’s important to recognize how the tax credit is skewing market data.
“There are easily understood swings in contract activity as buyers respond to a tax credit that was expiring and was then extended and expanded,” he says. “These swings are masking the underlying trend, which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels.”
December activity was the fifth highest monthly tally in two years.
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Lifeline Needed for Underwater Home Owners
An estimated 4.5 million home owners owe 75 percent more than their homes are worth. That number is likely to peak at 5.1 million in June, affecting 10 percent of home owners and making them increasingly likely to just walk away.
”We’re now at the point of maximum vulnerability,” says Sam Khater, a senior economist with First American CoreLogic, the firm that conducted the recent research. ”People’s emotional attachment to their property is melting into the air.”
Consultants at Oliver Wyman calculated that 17 percent of owners defaulting in 2008 –about 588,000– chose to default even though they could pay.
First American estimates that it would cost about $745 billion – about the same as the original 2008 bank bailout – to restore all underwater borrowers to the break-even point.
Doing so would be seen as highly unfair by many taxpayers, says Michael S. Barr, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, but doing nothing would be another blow to a fragile economy.
Source: The New York Times, David Streitfeld (02/022010)
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Fannie, Freddie Go After Bad Loans
Accountants at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are auditing mortgage files to uncover loans with improper documentation about a borrower’s income, and then forcing banks and savings and loans to buy the loans back.
Freddie required lenders to buy back $2.7 billion of loans in the first nine months of 2009. Fannie Mae won’t disclose its figures, but the mortgage trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance said Fannie made $4.3 billion in loan-repurchase requests in the first nine months of 2009.
One result is that banks are underwriting mortgage loans even more carefully than they were last year, which can further slow the lending process.
“If you’re being hit with a lot of repurchases very suddenly, the easiest thing to do is to tighten your standards rapidly,” said Glenn Boyd, a Barclays analyst.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos (01/30/2010)
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