Beige Book Reports Economy Is Improving
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of national economic conditions reported that the economy is improving.
Bad weather was blamed for slow home sales and construction in New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. The Fed also reported sluggish lending with banks still cautious and borrowers reluctant to take out big loans.
Home and condo sales were up in Boston, Cleveland Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
Source: Associated Press, Jeannine Aversa (03/03/2010)
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Economy to grow in 2009, Bernanke says
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country’s financial health since the recession struck with force last year.
But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation’s unemployment rate and causing “further sizable job losses” in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee.
The recession, which started in December 2007, already has snatched a net total of 5.1 million jobs. The unemployment rate “could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes,” Bernanke said.
But while some economists believe unemployment could hit 10 percent by the end of this year, the Fed doesn’t share that view.
The unemployment rate will probably climb “somewhere” in the 9 percent range, Bernanke said.
“The loss of jobs is one of the most distressing aspects of this whole episode,” he said.
Even with all the cautionary notes, the Fed chief offered a far less dour assessment of the economy.
“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” he told lawmakers. “We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum.”
Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its grip on the country, Bernanke said. Full Story.
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Top Economists Say Recovery Has Begun!
Economic recovery is about making people feel more confident, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.
Zandi evidenced increasing home sales and gains in the stock market are some promising signs that the worst is over and people will start spending again.
“We’re starting to see some pent-up demand for goods,” he says.
But Zandi warns that the situation is still fragile. “Confidence is a very fickle thing. It can go from abject pessimism that pervades now to a more balanced view of the world rather quickly.”
Robert Brusca of FAO Economics is predicting strong growth in the last half of the year and a quick recovery for the labor market. “You’ve lost 5 million jobs. It shouldn’t be hard to put 2.5 million jobs back on rather quickly after you hit bottom,” he said.
Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, calls improving home sales, a rising stock market, and better-than-expected retail sales in February and March good signs of a turnaround. By the time President Obama’s stimulus package takes effect, the economy will be ready, he says.
“The stimulus has a much better chance of working if trends are already turning up than if it needs to halt a decline,” he said.
Source: CNNMoney, Chris Isidore (04/06/2009)
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The 2009 economy and your wallet
The new president’s first job will be to repair a badly broken economy. Here’s how he’ll take on the four biggest challenges – and what that means for you.
By Janice Revell, Money Magazine senior writer
Last Updated: January 13, 2009: 8:52 AM ET
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