Market Should Be ‘Near Normal’ in the Spring
Housing industry consultant John Burns says low mortgage
rates and the home buyer tax credit, plus the availability of FHA loans – “the new subprime,” as he calls it – will
combine to keep housing transaction levels at “near normal” through Spring 2010.
First-time homebuyers are about the half the market, he says, while the expansion of the housing tax credit will get
senior buyers “off the fence” and buying retirement properties.
What would have happened if Congress hadn’t extended the tax credit? “I think we would see housing crater,” Burns said.
Burns clients include home builders, lenders, and equity investors.
Source: the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos (11/18/2009)
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Fed Calls Housing Upturn a Good Sign
The Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” report, released Wednesday, points to housing as a bright spot in the economic landscape and applauds banks that lent to first-time homebuyers.
It calls commercial real estate a consistently weak sector, weighed down by business closures and the difficulty in refinancing.
In a separate report Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department said the number of jobs fell in 43 states and the District of Columbia, with the unemployment rate rising in 23 states.
Industries with the strongest economic gains were residential real estate and manufacturing.
Source: Washington Post, Neil Irwin (10/22/2009)
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A Historic Time to Buy
Young people just starting to invest and buying their first homes are potentially the winners in this recession.
First-time homebuyers, most between the ages of 25 and 45, accounted for about 45 percent of home sales from January through July 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®
“This is a historic time,” says George Jaramillo, a 35-year-old business analyst in Atlanta, who recently bought three homes, two of them foreclosures. “It’s a great opportunity to make some great gains in the future.”
A study by investment company T. Rowe Price points out that investing when prices are low can result in amazing gains. For instance, between 1970 and 1990, the annualized rate of return for the S&P 500 was 11.5 percent.
“We need to be shouting from the rooftops that this is not the time to get out of the market if you’re young,” says Christine Fahlund, a senior financial planner with T. Rowe Price. “This is the time to be in the market.”
Source: The Associated Press, Chip Cutter
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Analysis: Tax Credit Adds 357,000 Buyers
A study estimates that 357,000 buyers have been motivated so far by the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
The study by Campbell Surveys, a division of Campbell Communications, calculated the figure by comparing the number of first-time homebuyers before and after the tax credit was instituted. The percentage of first-time buyers rose from 32 percent in January and February to 43 percent for the rest of the year – except July when the rate fell to 42 percent.
Campbell’s Research Director Thomas Popik pointed out that this survey mirrors the numbers calculated by the National Association of REALTORS® and those from Moody’s Economy.com.
The data supports legislative efforts in both the U.S. House and Senate to extend the tax credit.
Source: HousingWire.com, Austin Kilgore
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