Economic indicators rise more than expected in June.
By TALI ARBEL
Associated Press
NEW YORK — More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.
It was the third straight monthly increase for the New York-based Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year.
The index rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent. May’s reading was revised up to a gain of 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, while April was scaled back to 1 percent growth from 1.1 percent.
The group also said activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent, with an annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. That’s the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2006.
The index is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months.
If these conditions continue, “expect a slow recovery this autumn,” said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. Full story..
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Economy to grow in 2009, Bernanke says
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country’s financial health since the recession struck with force last year.
But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation’s unemployment rate and causing “further sizable job losses” in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee.
The recession, which started in December 2007, already has snatched a net total of 5.1 million jobs. The unemployment rate “could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes,” Bernanke said.
But while some economists believe unemployment could hit 10 percent by the end of this year, the Fed doesn’t share that view.
The unemployment rate will probably climb “somewhere” in the 9 percent range, Bernanke said.
“The loss of jobs is one of the most distressing aspects of this whole episode,” he said.
Even with all the cautionary notes, the Fed chief offered a far less dour assessment of the economy.
“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” he told lawmakers. “We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum.”
Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its grip on the country, Bernanke said. Full Story.
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